Ugh. I have General Aesop spitting and gobbing in rage over this. He and Lindsey Graham are right on the same page with regards to the 'Kraine which just convinces me more that the mainstream narrative on the matter is a fetid pile of manure.
Col. MacGregor was saying that the best tank for the Ukes at this point is the Leopard 2, currently used by the Germans. (We Canadians used to have them too, but neglect and lack of funding has made our armoured cav a bad joke. I think they eventually got scrapped or turned into static displays for museums). But - whatever - MacGregor said the Leopard has a better engine, and is far more fuel efficient than the M2 Abrams which is the Yank main battle tank. MacGregor was apparently in charge of the armoured cav in the sandbox wars... so I assume he knows what he's talking about. Contrary to Graham and the Aesop - the reason the Ukes are begging for tanks is because the Russians have utterly destroyed the ones they had. Given that their best tankers are either dead or captured, I understand when the other NATO allies refuse to give the Ukes anymore of their own tanks.
So - I decided to start turning my own formidable intellect on this. I looked up the specs on the Abrams, the Leopard, and the Russian T90 and the T14 Armata which are now flooding into the Donbas by the train load. According to General Aesop, the Russians are stupid and incompetent, and in a conflict the Abrams will open any Russian tank like a tin can, and spew it's pulped contents from one end of the battlefield to the other. The USA spends a billion times more money on its defense industry, and therefore has equipment that is a bazillion times better than anything the Russkies can come up with. A couple of us pointed out the obvious logical contradictions but our man just got angry. I bring the question over here to ask it in all seriousness:
Would the Abrams make a difference in this conflict? As a chit house strategist, I see a repeat of what has happened to date. Expensive, top notch high tech weapons will fail against the marginally lower tech and much cheaper Russian equivalents. Looking at the specs, if MacGregor is right, and the Leopard is a better tank for the Ukes... Then the Russians are even better suited with their own tanks. The Russian tanks are lighter, have faster reloading cycles, greater range and speed and probably have other equivalencies and even superior qualities. AND - the Russians can produce them at costs that undercut the American Abrams by 50~60%. AND - they can produce them at a higher rate.
Are there any honest to God tankers in our midst that can shed some light on this? I suppose the whole thing is moot - whatever the Ukes get, Abrams or not - it will likely just get blasted by rockets and artillery and if it somehow avoids that and gets into an old fashioned tank battle - the Russians will just swarm it and kill it with superior numbers of beaters like the old T72's...
As always, your expert opinion is sincerely appreciated.
One thing I've noticed during this fiasco, China's military is becoming stronger, while the U.S., NATO, Russia and all other countries that are dabbling in this conflict are weakened due to attrition.ReplyDelete
From what I've seen of history, regardless of how good your tank is, what it fires, and the amount of tanks determine the outcome. That, and how good the supply line is maintained.
Yeah... I recall hearing someplace that they have two active carriers and have laid the keels for a half dozen or so more... I really won't be surprised if they make a move on Taiwan soon. The Japs are absolutely chitting bricks and they are square. There are metric tonnes of old ethnic feuds brewing over there too...Delete
Transferring my reply to General Aesop's comments over at Bayou Renaissance ManReplyDelete
Blogger Michael said...
Aesop did you happen to forget the US isn't making 155mm shells anymore?
We buy them from South Korea.
Nor can we build new heavy armored vehicles aka Tanks and APC's.
Snip M1 Abrams It entered service with US Army in 1986. Production ended in 1992
Noting like outsourcing your military, along with the Chinese rare earths for every major military weapon system we have (to include fighters like the F35 Super bird)
When the Russian Artillery falls silent, I'll bow to your awesome understanding of everything in the known world to include successful marriage.
January 11, 2023 at 6:08 PM Delete
Blogger RSR said...
Lima OH tank plant produces a dozen tanks per month.
And US military is restarting mothballed WW2 ammo factories.
January 12, 2023 at 9:24 AM
Blogger Michael said...
RSR posted: Lima OH tank plant produces a dozen tanks per month.
Not quite true given the current price for a M1 Abrams base model without current upgrades is over 10 million each the millions allocated to the plant (even if the workers and plant cost nothing) is more in the order of this snip:
In late 2016, tank production and refurbishment had fallen to a rate of one per month with less than 100 workers on site. In 2017, the Trump administration ordered military production to increase, including Abrams production and employment. In 2018, it was reported that the Army had ordered 135 tanks re-built to new standards, with employment at over 500 workers and expected to rise to 1,000.
REBUILDING isn't building new ones. I'm looking for the link about how we forced retired due to COVID Jab refusals the older employees that ran the massive castings section for turrets and hulls.
And US military is restarting mothballed WW2 ammo factories.
Please post links of this as the EPA regulations that closed them down are not rescinded. America doesn't like dirty factories it seems.
January 12, 2023 at 7:58 PM Delete
Blogger RSR said...
Ammo plants, including updating mothballed plants: https://www.realcleardefense.com/2022/04/21/us_armys_plan_to_update_wwii-era_ammo_plants_and_depots_828297.html
Poland just placed an order for 250 new Abrams tanks from the Lima plant this year, >10% to deliver in first year: https://mercercountyoutlook.net/2022/04/08/lima-tank-plant-to-build-250-abrams-tanks-for-poland/
January 13, 2023 at 2:57 PM
Blogger Michael said...
Thank you RSR for the links, interesting but future PLANS do not a motivated and skilled workforce make.
The military plans, CONgress promises, SOMETIMES actually Funds and I wait to see what really comes of the efforts as we've lost the older generation of CAN DO workers to age and lack of respect for the trade of building war machines.
Look around, respect for military service is lacking as our recruitment is so poor that we've again lowered standards and *Still* cannot get enough folks to enlist as our solid conservative soldiers fail to reenlist, preferring not to live under critical race theory that calls most of them racist and subhuman.
The chimpanzees running the show are more worried about using the "Right Pronouns", Diversity and Macroaggressions than getting real work done.
My interest in History has sown the Poles often on the wrong side of History as their country has been used as a door mat for armies for centuries. They are apt to find themselves used up like the Kurds by the USA to be ignored when their "Services" are not useful, again like the Kurds.
Something General Aesop forgets is shit poor leadership can destroy the world's largest Imperial Military.
At this rate how long will the world continue to support the US Dollar as our military proves to be nearly useless?
Agreed to all that. Plus the fact that America regularly betrays anyone that side with them in these foreign conflicts. Americans lost 58,000 people in Vietnam. The south Vietnamese lost 2 million when America bailed out. How many allies were left fluttering in the breeze in Afghanistan and Iraq? How many Ukes are going to die when this house of cards comes down?Delete
The Russians were showing off trophies on Telegram. They have really been stacking the bodies in Soledar and they must have had two or three hundred kids stacked up like chord wood. All we’re about 18-23… all dead and stiff with rigourmotis. I’ve heard reports they’ve now encircled Bakmeht… and that will be when the real killing begins. The stupidity of it all makes the mind wobble.
All good points. It all comes down to logistics. We cannot produce enough firepower and get it over there before Russia completely takes Ukraine. They have logistics on their side bigly.Delete
And they produce everything in house, not half way around the world.
Aesop would garner more respect if she/he threw out a couple of apologies for her/his asinine behaviour as well as her/his wrong guesses about many things over the last few years.
No one I know takes her/him seriously anymore, and she/he's shown himself to be an incurable narcissist.
I now assume she/he's controlled opposition. He supports the same things as the people who want this war; the Obamas, Kerry's, Clinton's etc...
And I will never forgive her/him for supporting the jab and threatening those of us that knew from the beginning this was a plandemic. She/he has blood on their hands.
I think part of it is his on-line persona. But he's talking now and that's good. I think a lot of Old World Men get sucked into the narratives of our day and can't see beyond them, much less admit it when they have been duped. We need to dispense with the idiots generating these narratives, and push back hard when they get stupid about it. Compared to a shit like Lindsay Graham or Mitch McConnel, Aesop is a bloody saint! He doesn't know any better but those two SOB's do and should get the rope for gulling and lying to good men who are really nothing more than dedicated patriots. The Repubs really need to sit down, have it out, and put those old bastards out to pasture. They are going to get thousands more killed at the rate they are going.Delete
Hey Glen, after I got involuntarily reclassed from Heavy Anti-Armor Weapons (11H20) TOW Gunner (TOW 2B) I unfortunately got fucked and hadda go to FT Knox and reclass as a 19K (M1 Abrams Crewman) They failed to check my 2A1 (personnel jacket) and see I was 6'4. I could only load or drive that fucker. Nametape Defilade indeed. Didn't fit in the gunners hole nor the TC slot.ReplyDelete
So, anyways, between my minimal Tanking (1st Cav, 1-12CAV) and my experience in Iraq and Kuwait on the GMASS contract, (saw a LOT of destroyed M1s in Kuwait) I can state there's a few things between the M1 and the Leo. Now, when I was still a TOW Gunner stationed in Germany, they -only- place left for us (1992-94) was Hohenfels Germany with 1-4INF CSC (Combat Support Company, yeah I'm -that- old) We were the OPFOR OPposing FORces who fought against everyone from Der Chermans to the Brits and even the French (that was a shitshow spectacular lemme tell you). We regularly trounced the US Armored Forces, so in one fashion I actually saw 'simulated combat' against BOTH weapons systems.
The Dutch and Krauts used the Leo, and the US (1st Armor) used the M1A1 (The A2 didn't come out until 96-97 and Our unit 1-12 was one of -the first- to field the A2 IRL in the CAV). Now,
1) Noise. The Gas Turbine on an Abrams? Fucker was -silent-... couple of times they literally could sneak up on us if they were going s-l-o-w-l-y and not making the treads clank... over muddy earth they were fucking literally creeping death. The Leo? That V-12 Diesel? Oh holy hells... a bunch of them moving overland towards us? Felt and sounded like a minor earthquake. Sometimes made us realize what our Grandads had been up against Hitler's Tigers back in the day. Loud? Try three kliks away deafening.
Now, IRL, no experience with the gun on a Leo, but my understanding is BOTH the Abrams AND the Leo use the same German made Rheinmetall 120mm caseless (minus the aft-cap) round. The US calls it the M256, and the Krauts call it the L55. Same gun. Absolutely death to any Former Soviet armor. Pure-Dee Can Opener.
Now, as far as being 'killable?' I got photos of Abrams that were burned up... for the most part those were vehicles that got into point-blank shewtin' matches against scores of Ivan-Armor. The crews usually survived... the tank would eventually burn, as the fuel cell would be ruptured and the Ammo in the bustle rack would 'pop open' and the blow-out panels would keep the crew alive. Deaf and shaken but alive. The ONLY M1s that ever got 'catastrophic kilt' were ones that ran over buried IEDs made up of 6-10 152mm Arty shells that were buried, and command detonated. A few of -those- M1s got blow'd to itty bitty pieces parts, but that's also b/c the belly armor on an Abrams wasn't designed to stop that sort of shit... in fact NO tank is designed to take THAT BIG of a underbelly hit and live.
The analysis of the 'Export Model' Leos in Syria show that they took a beating. The ammo storage in a Leo is in the Bustle like the Abrams, but ALSO in the hull next to the driver. Problem is, the Bustle only holds 15 rounds, and the hull ammo is numbered at 16 and NOT rigged up with blow out panels. In fact google "Turkish Leopard 2A4 Blown up" and check the images. The majority of them were kil't by hits to the hull stowed ammo.
The shells (the 120mm) themselves are combustible (semi-caseless) with only the Aft Cap (the bottom of the shell) that's left after firing. Fucker needed a catch bag as otherwise when the gun recoils, it throws that hot fucker out at warp speed and it'll bounce around like a motherfucker... (looks like and is a cool ashtray BTW IF you can score one during gunnery, a SABOT round cap that is, a HEAT round cap has a primer tube that sticks up like a big stick a foot and a half out of the cap itself)
The Leo 2A4 is the 'flat turret faced' Export Model, while the newest model the 2A5/6 has an added arrowhead shaped added on glacis that goes on the front of the turret giving it slopes on top and bottom to assist in survivability. Also, the Leo has a different composite Armor than the Abrams.ReplyDelete
The Abrams OTOH has Chobham Armor (a Brit development) which, hands down is -the best- Armor in the world IMO. Practically unkillable and classified like a motherfucker. True story, we had two tanks crash into each other, and one of the Chobham skirts got peeled open and maaaaan Heap Big Top Secret Stink was made about it... EVERYBODY had to evac the motorpool until the piece could be covered, removed and replaced...
Now, no idea about the Leo vis-a-vis 'services' BUT I can tell you
Services on an M1 are a motherfucker. VERY labor intensive. Back in the day, we did quarterly full services... pull the pack (engine and transmission one BIG heavy fucker) change all the seals, change all the fluids and filters as needed. We used to say that it was like having a Ferrari in the garage that we only took out of the garage twice a year, (for gunnery qual) and as soon as we took it out, we drove it like the hammers of hell were after us... shit tended to break because of that.
Hope that helps.
Kinda, BC. Actually a lot. But - can I hold your feet to the fire on this?Delete
Would you give the Ukes tanks. If so, which ones? Do you think it will have any bearing on the war?
I saw an IED take out a Humvee or two in the vids. They were on the periphery of the explosion with an M1 between them. That bomb lifted the tank easily 12 foot into the air... I don't think there is a fighting machine on the face of the earth that could survive that...
Well, what they are actually getting is apparently Challenger IIs: https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2023/01/14/uk-confirms-transfer-of-challenger-2-tanks-to-ukraine-first-western-heavy-armour-commitment/Delete
Hmmn. Honestly, I agree w/everyone else here, Tanks for the Kraine is a lost cause. The best hope they could have is to get them better anti-armor weapons. From what I've been hearing/reading/seeing the Javelin despite the rep from Iraq where they made good bunker busters, the failure rate on them has been pretty high.Delete
We gave the (im)moderate Syrians my old system the TOW-2Bs (with top down hitting rounds) also called the BGM-71 and I've seen a LOT of Aloha Snackbar vidyas of them being used with great effect against Syrian Ivan Supplied Armor.
I'd load 'em up with TOWs personally. The Bradleys (M2) they're planning on using/giving -might- work IF they're armed with the double shot side-mounted TOW Tubes on the side, otherwise the Brad is just meat for the tanks, as the M242 25mm Bushmaster, while good on older homogenized steel (think T-54/55) can't really fuck up a modern T-90, although there were some wrecks of some export Model T-72 on Camp Slayer that were taken out point-blank by Brads firing the 25mm loaded with Depleted Uranium rounds (Ye Olde Golden Beebe of Legend and Lore)... in fact I wouldn't doubt if my crawling over those particular wrecks is where I sucked up the DU that went chemlight in my left lung (which has now been cut out thankee very much, fuckin' cancer)
Yeah, they're fucking doomed... I'm waiting to see Krainfeld show up at his West Palm Beach mansion if he doesn't bail to Yidsville first... Jes' Sayin'
My best friend in HS was career tanker, starting in West Germany when that was still a thing, and ending after a couple stop losses somewhere sandy.Delete
He loved the Abrams, but said you need more mechanics than crew, and you pretty much needed two Abrams per crew if it was anywhere sandy.
I'm guessing even if the tanks could get there in time, Ukes don't have the trained mechanics.
Doubt new tanks will make much difference. How many thousands of armored vehicles did they have to start with? How many did they claim they captured?ReplyDelete
So where are all the tanks and apcs?
I wonder about that too. What I had heard is that wherever possible, the Ukes are using trucks and lighter guns because fuel is a huge problem... and the M1 is a gas gobbling whore which makes sense, given its attributes...Delete
Yeah, fuel might be a problem. Having said that though I didn't see much footage of armor in the various offensives the ukies tried, as in I'd expect that would be what they'd husband tanks etc. for a solid armored punch, and I just didn't see it. A handful here and there yes, but not massed.Delete
All the tanks one side has become useless and targets if the other side has air superiority.ReplyDelete
the comment l loved the most, who would have thought to EVER see German armor heading EAST through Ukraine ever again??!!ReplyDelete
At this point, any Tanks are Too Little, Too Late. Ukrops are sqweeling for Tanks because they already Lost all they started with. Getting Tanks into country 404 and then to the FEBA is Not gonna Happen - Ivan will (to keep it 'legal') let those Trains with the Tanks get a ways out of Poland, then the Aviation will Hit the Trains (and Bridges) Any Tank that makes it past that will be Operating Without (friendly) Air Cover - SU-25's, Drones, Attack Helos, hel, they may even send in the Tupolev Bears to Carpet-Bomb them.ReplyDelete
It would be "Interesting" (just not for the Crews) to see a few M1-A2's against the new T-14 Armata... as far as I know, none of those are in 404, but there are some T-90's. Both have the latest Reactive Armor (Exploding Sandboxes) and the T-14 has a Radar-Directed kind-of Giant Shotgun array that (supposedly) can Break Up an ATGM far enough away from the Tank that a Shaped-Charge Warhead is ineffective . The T-14 also has a Fully-Automated Turret- Crew is in the Hull, in a Forged Titanium Capsule independent of the Hull Armor. Will be interesting to see how that Autoloading Stuff for the Main Gun, Co-Ax, and Top-Turret MG holds up in the Field.
The Abrams is The King Of Beasts…but I’m hearing that it weighs so much…that much of the year it will be useless as it bogs down in mud. I heard it was so heavy that they aren’t allowed to participate in parades and displays because they chew up even paved roads…Delete
nah, as long as they leave the track pads on, the roads will be okay. the rear exhaust will melt plastic though so in a parade it could be fatal. its heavy indeed and uke mud is like no other on earth. confined to roads, many bridges too light, tanker nightmares.Delete
According to my tank commander, Iraq War veteran son.... 2 points to ponder is that first, the leopard and the Abrams both share the identical 120 mm main gun. Second, he says we would never give ukraine Abrams tanks because the us government doesn't want the Russians ever getting their hands on one.ReplyDelete
Something to think about the M1 Abrams. Aside from shell shocked Iraqis in Desert storm after the Snip: extensive aerial bombing campaign from 17 January 1991 to 23 February 1991 so 38 days of aircraft and cruise missile attacks the Abrams has NEVER faced a near peer opponent. Even Saddam's elite tankers were a shattered exhausted force fighting from sandpit-bunkers. No close and attack tanker style actions where discarding sabot and flank shots might have been effective against the lesser armor on the Abrams flanks.ReplyDelete
We had total control of the air, so no Abrams faced a single airstrike nor chopper attack. There was NO Top Targeting Anti-Armor missiles in Saddam's inventory.
Leopards in Turkish service suffered losses due to American issued Anti-Armor missiles given to the Kurds. NO Tank today is immune to Top Attack Anti-Armor weapons. That includes laser guided artillery from loitering drones lasing the targets.
Not going to be true if the Ukrainians are given them. Russians have plenty of top attack weapons.
Also Logistics, as you mentioned the M1 is a JP4 fuel hog.
Snip Fuel capacity 504.4 US gallons (1,909 L)
M1A2, road: 265 mi (426 km)
Cross country: 93–124 mi (150–200 km)
AND being one of the heaviest tanks in service many European bridges cannot support them.
Every Tank company requires a series of support vehicles like recovery vehicles, repair and services. No Ukranian farmer is towing the M1 back to base for repairs.
This is the deadly mistake Aesop (and a lot of others) make. They assume the Russians are backward morons, that Putler is a raging megalomaniac, and that their equipment is junk. They are so convinced of it, they have killed just about every young man in the Ukrainian military and they STILL believe it. All proof to the contrary only infuriates them. Putler loves it to - I can hear him smirking and smiling right over the internet.Delete
But… he knows us very, very well. Our leaders are clowns and he is playing them like a fiddle. As are the Chinese. Interesting times are afoot…
like bc i was anti armor in the day, then leg infantry, then repaired tanks for twenty more years, then logistic at theater level. yes, tanks turn the tide of battle. IF you have trained/experienced crew, extensive logistics trains, shit tons of ammo/fuel and air cover to keep the birds off your ass, and the arty from seeing you coming. oh and several months of intensive combined arms training. in other words, two years too damn late charlie. and you need numbers in the hundreds to cover a theater the size of the 'kraine, not a few dozen. the shermans can't go thru w/ their pledged donation b/c they can't get enough leo's to run long enough to get on the train. no spare parts, no motivated mechanics, no national will. they just sacked their diversity hire secdef b/c she couldn't make it happen,finally. good luck 'kraine, you're toast. i hope you live long enough to turn on your "leaders" that sent you down the road to your death for a few million us$$.ReplyDelete
RR…agreed… I don’t think it’s even possible to have a classic tank battle in this day and age, maybe. The minute you assemble your machines… your adversaries will flatten them with aircraft and missiles…Delete
If Russia could have beaten the Ukrainians they would have...and this would all be over. They can't. Ukraine can't beat Russia. They are too small and Russia too big. What's left is a stalemate. Which is what we've seen for most of 2022 and what we are likely to see for the foreseeable future.ReplyDelete
Dan, just like Aesop (no insult intended) you continue to assume that Russia wanted to take over country 404.Delete
READ their Special Operation statement from ah, about a year ago. Demilitarize and de-nazify the Ukraine. Protect those Russian people from Ukrainian attacks and keep NATO from making Ukraine a nuclear missile base.
So far it seems they are doing quite well in fulfilling their mission.
As the only thing keeping Ukraine in this fight is massive resupply from America and their lap poodles in the EU AND plenty of mercenaries from Poland and such.
So, despite the rabid screaming from Aesop, it DOES MATTER that the USA is suffering massively from crazy money printing and lack of everything (prices RISE as supplies fall basic Economics 101).
Lack of energy for Europe is also driving their people into massive debt as prices go crazy, homes are cold and dark and in general they are harming themselves to "Support Ukraine".
General Aesop sees no confusion that the very things HE's spouting is from looking into a Media Mirror and pretending it's Russia, Russia, Russia 24-07.
We have fallen into the classic Thucydides Trap. You might want to look that up.
The "Stalemate" will stop when the American loses its Petrodollar status. No Money Honey, No Play by Europe and such.
If you think gasoline and eggs are expensive NOW, just wait a few months.
The Field Marshal will have some great fairytales from the Moscow green zone Starbucks by spring or whenever the missiles run out.ReplyDelete
Hopefully there will be no hoarding of the local brothel info.
You're making Gen. A-tard nuts. Keep it up boyo!ReplyDelete
Went to go see if the General had made a response but I see his internet is conveniently down from streaming too much joo tube. Can't imagine paying for anything but unlimited data. Who even buys blocks of data anymore? Maybe it's a Cali thing like rolling brownouts. Either way that saves the few poor souls that still go there some brain cells for a day or 3. Maybe they will wake up and realize the dude is a fraud. Prolly not but maybe.ReplyDelete
He's a snark. He's not the only one, in today's world snark has largely replaced wit and a lot of folks are happy with the trade. The problem with that is that it allows idiotic minds to compete with intelligent ones. I was just watching Justin Trudeau in the House Of Commons and he comes across like Aesop too. When he gets called out on something, he attacks back with ad homo, diversion, counter accusations, and rude jokes at his adversary's expense and thinks he looks like a whiz kid. That man is literally so dumb he thinks he's smart - so I suppose Aesop isn't that bad... but they have similar tatics. Throw in their egos and everything goes to hell. The two parties start talking past each other and nothing changes.Delete
Oh boy. Lindsay and the General are not going to be happy at all. Looks like the Ukes are gearing up to abandon Bakmeht.ReplyDelete
It’s in the WaPo…which means it’s utter booshit…or TPTB are signalling an impending loss.
But again…the time to break away is long over. To escape, the Ukes have to cross miles of open prairie. They’ll be sitting ducks for Russian artillery, rockets and guided missiles.
I hope Vlad shows mercy and holds his fire and lets them go…but in his place, I sure wouldn’t.